Charlotte FC's magic numbers for their last seven games

By Brian Maurer

Photo Courtesy of CJ Hellner

Charlotte FC's season is winding down with only seven regular season games left. After a bye this week, their final push to climb the standings begins. Charlotte has put itself in a good position to make the top seven in the Eastern Conference and to earn a playoff home game. Here is a breakdown of the average* amount of points needed for them to target each position from fourth to seventh.

4th in the EC - 52 points

The average amount of points the fourth-place team in the East has earned is 51.3 points. NYRB is currently in fourth and they are on pace for slightly more than that average (around 52). New York drawing in their game this weekend against Sporting KC opened the door for Charlotte during this final stretch. It looks like the Crown will need around 14 points to earn home-field advantage.

Brian's magic number: 14 points

5th - 50 points

The EC average for fifth over the past 10 years has been 50.3 points. NYCFC is currently on track for around 49-50. Averaging those two totals out Charlotte will likely need around 12 points to keep them in the picture of fifth. This position is an important target as it would help Charlotte avoid Inter Miami, Columbus Crew, and FC Cincinnati in the First Round.

Brian's magic number: 12 points

6th - 49 points

The average for sixth has been around 48 points, although that average has been trending up closer to 49 or 50 over the last six years. Charlotte FC is currently on track for 48 points. Maintaining their season pace should help them keep their current position. The big question mark is the six-pointer road game against Orlando that's coming up in a couple of weeks.

Brian's magic number: 11 points

7th - 48 points

Seventh is a bit of a wildcard. Orlando is currently in seventh and they are on a solid run over their last 10 games or so. Also, the average points needed to get to seventh has increased in the last few years. Since 2021, the number of points needed has been closer to 48 or 49. From 2013-2019 the number needed was lower (44-45). More expansion teams have likely changed that trend.

Brian's magic number: 10 points

Summary

Fourth is a significantly more challenging position for Charlotte to earn as NYRB is 5 points ahead. Charlotte fans should feel some optimism after the Red Bulls dropped two more points at home this past Saturday leaving the door open for other teams to gain ground.

Fifth is attainable as Charlotte is only one point behind NYCFC. Maintaining their pace should keep them swinging for fifth up until decision day.

Sixth should be the minimum expectation for Charlotte fans, as this season has been about staking a claim for a higher position and maintaining that level.

Seventh would feel like a letdown, but it cannot be understated how strong Orlando looks right now. Charlotte's matchup in Orlando could be one of if not the most important game in Charlotte's final stretch.

NYRB's remaining games:

@ Chicago (27th), vs Atlanta (21st), vs NYCFC (13th), @ Toronto (19th), @ Atlanta (21st), vs Columbus (4th) - Average rank of opponents (17.5)

NYCFC's remaining games:

@ DC (20th), vs Philadelphia (22nd), vs Miami (1st), @ NYRB (9th), vs Cincinnati (3rd), vs Nashville (28th), @ Montréal (26th) - Average rank of opponents (15.6)

Charlotte FC's remaining games:

@ Montréal (26th), @ Orlando (15th), vs New England (25th), @ Miami (1st), vs Chicago (27th), vs Montréal (26th), @ DC (20th) - Average rank of opponents (20)

Orlando City's remaining games:

vs New England (25th), vs Charlotte (14th), @ Columbus (4th), @ Dallas (17th), vs Philadelphia (22nd), @ Cincinnati (3rd), vs Atlanta (21st) - Average rank of opponents (15.1)

*I averaged each position in the EC standing (4th-7th) based on the standings from 2013-2023, excluding 2020

**Current Supporters' Shield rank in parentheses